Afghanistan has attracted a lot of attention as these players navigate a maze of competing interests, security concerns, and geopolitical pressures. Afghanistan is seen by China and Pakistan as a vital security barrier that prevents threats and extremist activity from spreading into their respective countries. They have therefore concluded that the Taliban, who have established authority and control over the majority of Afghanistan, are their best option for defending their interests. But the Taliban haven’t been doing a good job of delivering on their pledge to fight terrorist organizations, and their attempts to forge closer connections with other regional players indicate a desire to balance the power of Beijing and Islamabad.
Beijing has taken the lead in many areas of Afghanistan’s reconstruction and political alignment since the Taliban took control of the country in August 2021. It was the first to sign significant investment agreements, send humanitarian aid, name a new ambassador to Kabul, and formally welcome a Taliban envoy. In fact, China has positioned itself as a useful ally of the Taliban, one that is prepared to support the nation’s development in the midst of conflict and a reliable source to assist the regime in gaining legitimacy both internationally and politically. Beijing has been using its veto power at the UN Security Council to exert diplomatic pressure for the relaxation of sanctions and asset freezes, while also serving as an intermediary and keeping an eye out for the Taliban on global forums.
When former Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi’s credentials were officially accepted by Chinese President Xi Jinping as Afghanistan’s envoy to China in late January 2024, many observers saw this as Beijing’s de facto formal recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs swiftly disproved this by claiming through a spokesman that the ceremony was an ordinary one. The ministry also reminded everyone that before the Taliban regime can be given formal recognition, it must establish an inclusive government with non-Taliban and non-Pashtun factions and combat terrorism.
In the past, Beijing has been helpful in mending the rift between Kabul and Islamabad, and Pakistan has assisted in facilitating contacts between the Russian and Chinese governments and the Taliban. China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, and Iran are expected to work together more closely on counter terrorism initiatives and the fight against the illicit drug trade. The United States’ influence in the region is expected to diminish further as it focuses its attention on the Indo-Pacific, and it will only be felt through cooperation with neighboring states to stabilize Afghanistan.