Luke Allen
Military Political Analyst
Makati, Manila
lukeallenmanila@journalist.com
In a stark and urgent warning, Australia’s Ambassador to the United States, Kevin Rudd, has underscored the profound and immediate global consequences that a potential war over Taiwan could trigger. Drawing a parallel with the transformative impact of World War II, Rudd emphasized that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would not just result in economic, political, and geostrategic upheavals, but would reshape the very fabric of the global order we know today
In an address to policymakers and international relations experts, Rudd underscored the significant economic costs of such a conflict. “The economic ramifications of a war over Taiwan would be immense,” he stated. “Given Taiwan’s critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain and the interlinked nature of global markets, the disruption would ripple through economies worldwide.”
Rudd also pointed to the grave political and geostrategic consequences that would arise, unseen since the aftermath of World War II. He noted that the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, has been increasingly clear about his intentions regarding Taiwan. “If Xi aims for unification with Taiwan, he would likely act within the next decade, given that he would want to avoid reaching his 80s with this unresolved,” Rudd explained. This timeline underscores the urgency of the situation and the need for immediate action.
The ambassador’s comments come amid growing concerns over China’s military maneuvers in the region, particularly in the Taiwan Strait. These maneuvers, which include large-scale naval exercises and increased military presence, have raised alarm bells among global powers. “We would be foolish to ignore the increasing clarity of China’s military signaling, including the pattern of its most recent exercises,” Rudd warned. Many analysts have interpreted these exercises as preparation for potential aggressive moves toward Taiwan.
Whether China decides to act, according to Rudd, will hinge on its perception of U.S. deterrence strength. “China will weigh its options based on how robust it perceives U.S. commitments and capabilities in the region,” he said. The United States, for its part, recognizes the stakes involved. “If China were successful in annexing Taiwan, it would severely impact U.S. credibility. The effect on the perceived reliability of U.S. alliances worldwide would be profound and potentially irreversible.”
This urgent warning from a key U.S. ally adds to the chorus of voices urgently and strongly urging for a clear and robust U.S. stance on Taiwan. The implications of a conflict extend far beyond the immediate region, threatening to reshape the international order and redefine global alliances. The time for decisive action is now, and the world is looking to the United States for leadership.
As the world watches the developments in the Taiwan Strait with bated breath, Rudd’s remarks serve as a sobering reminder of the high stakes involved. The potential for a conflict over Taiwan to act as a catalyst for global change is a reality that policymakers cannot afford to ignore.