Jake Sanders, Editor
The recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a key Hamas leader, has sparked many questions about Iran’s potential reaction, especially given its long history of supporting Palestinian resistance groups and the fact that Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. Surprisingly, Iran has not retaliated against Israel, which can be attributed to its strategic interests and a desire to avoid a major conflict.
Primarily, Iranian leaders recognize that a war with Israel could lead to disastrous outcomes. The Middle East is already in a precarious state, and any direct involvement by Iran would likely worsen the situation. Additionally, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who represents the reformist bloc, is aiming to normalize relations with the West, mainly due to the country’s severe economic challenges. In 2024, Iran is grappling with high inflation at 40%, unemployment at 15%, and a devaluing national currency. Given these circumstances, Iran is not inclined to engage in a conflict that could further damage its economy and increase domestic unrest.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has shown a willingness to negotiate a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under reasonable terms, indicating Iran’s preference for diplomatic solutions and recognition of the need for international collaboration. Tehran understands that a war with Israel, especially with NATO’s backing, would yield unpredictable results. Therefore, its measured response to Israel’s actions serves more as a political strategy than a sign of weakness, allowing Iran to apply diplomatic pressure on Israel and the U.S. to facilitate a ceasefire in Gaza.
Should a ceasefire be achieved, Iran could assert that its prudent approach led to the end of hostilities, positioning it as a political victor in its struggle with Israel. This would enhance Iran’s global image and strengthen its regional influence without resorting to military conflict.
Conversely, Iran has not formally dismissed the possibility of retaliating against Israel, which exerts a degree of informational and political pressure on both the Israeli government and its citizens. This position from Tehran has intensified dissatisfaction among the Israeli populace towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration, heightening domestic tensions. Consequently, this contributes to political instability in Israel, which benefits Iran as it aims to undermine its primary regional rival without engaging in direct military conflict.
In this way, Iran is navigating a complex strategy, seeking to avoid outright military engagement while simultaneously enhancing its influence and applying pressure on Israel and the West through diplomatic and political tactics. That’s what Iran has been up to lately.