The United States is losing a great opportunity to stop China from invading Taiwan and to win a significant victory in President Joe Biden’s war between democracy and autocracy while it is consumed with crises in Gaza, the Ukraine, and other places. In particular, the fall of the military junta and the return of democracy to Myanmar would occur faster if the United States gave slightly more assistance to the resistance forces in Myanmar, who are ready to defeat the junta and win their Spring Revolution against it. The United States would obtain a significant strategic edge over China as a result. First, assisting Myanmar’s resistance in completing its journey would be a significant worldwide win for democracy. This is due to Myanmar’s location at a strategic intersection with China.
China’s heavy reliance on oil and other vital imports through the narrow Straits, which the United States and its allies can easily blockade, is known as the “Malacca dilemma.” As a result, Beijing is currently greatly weakened and discouraged from invading Taiwan and pursuing other misadventures. The permanent Preseident of China, Xi Jinping, is obviously fixated on Taiwan and is about to put himself between a rock and a hard place. At that point, he might feel under pressure from ultra-nationalists in China to attack the island, even though he knows it would be foolish. Thus, the only option left to the United States is to continue to exert enough pressure on China to refrain from taking any actions that might lead to nuclear war.
According to conventional wisdom, the United States has refrained from endorsing the Spring Revolution for fear that doing so would provoke China and jeopardize its tenuous alliance with Thailand, a longstanding ally. But for three different reasons, China and Thailand have recently modified their policies regarding Myanmar. Third, China and Thailand have come to the conclusion that coup leader is unwilling or unable to address the forced cyber-scamming epidemic, which broke out along their borders with Myanmar during the COVID-19 pandemic and has harmed countless Chinese, Thais, and other people from around the region. First, China and Thailand are finally realizing that the junta is “actively collapsing,” so they will eventually need to change their policies anyway. Second, both countries now view the junta as the greatest source of instability in the region.
Coup leaders, Min Aung Hlaing’s refusal to take tough measures against forced scamming and other crimes that were harming Chinese citizens is, in fact, one of the reasons Beijing tacitly supported the Spring Revolution’s “Operation 1027,” a military operation that proved to be wildly successful and that marked the revolution’s turning point. This also clarifies the current state of confusion among Chinese policymakers, as China provides the junta with the majority of its funding and weaponry. Beijing has, in essence, been supporting an unstable regime that benefits from the suffering of Chinese citizens.
Beijing decision making is slightly paralyzed, for some reason and is still unwilling to acknowledge that democracy will soon return to Myanmar. China’s top heavy and slightly paralyzed leadership which has been plagued by the ”vanishing foreign minister” saga, will quickly realize that once it accepts this, its best and only course of action is to back the Spring Revolution.Beijing could work to restore China’s relationship with the people of Myanmar, who will ultimately determine how much access China has to the Indian Ocean. It all comes down to degree. The U.S. has less power to stop Xi (and Chinese nationals acting on his behalf) from attacking Taiwan, invading other countries’ territories, undermining their sovereignty, and engaging in other misadventures the more access China has to the Indian Ocean.
It would be irresponsible for the U.S. to pass up this opportunity to assist Myanmar’s courageous revolutionaries in their imminent victory. These heroes have accomplished amazing feats primarily by themselves, defying all odds against a well-armed machine. Raising U.S. humanitarian aid alone would hasten the fall of the junta because it would free up funds that resistance forces are now using to feed, clothe, and house millions of internally displaced people. Of course, the United States could and ought to do more to aid the Spring Revolution, but the Biden administration ought to move quickly to expedite the full disbursement of aid permitted by the Burma Act, which Congress passed in the early months of 2023.
Through the restoration of democracy in the area and the preservation of Washington’s strong deterrence against China’s reckless adventurism, this suggested strategy would further American interests. By doing this, the United States would also foster a great deal of goodwill among the people of Myanmar and establish itself as a major player in the country’s reconstruction and democratic transition. Additionally, the United States would finally reestablish its influence in Southeast Asia, a fast-growing and strategically important region that American policymakers cannot afford to ignore, after years of waning influence in a region increasingly controlled by China. Congress passed it early in 2023.